![]() This is called the two-way vote share - Catalist’s report focused on this metric, so all of this article’s references to demographic vote percentage will use it as well. One note here is that, for the sake of allowing easy year-to-year comparisons, these percentages are calculated by looking only at votes cast for either the Democratic or Republican nominees, rather than for third-party candidates. And though Biden performed worse among Black voters than Clinton or Obama, he still won about 90 percent of that group. For instance, it drives home the fact that the non-college white population, while declining as a share of the electorate, remains quite large (they were about 44 percent of all voters in 2020), and Trump won 63 percent of them. Biden’s share of white voters with a college degree improved by about 4 percentage points from Clinton’s.īut the report doesn’t just look at the narrow question of what changed in each group it helps us understand the two parties’ coalitions as a whole.Biden’s share of white voters without a college degree improved about 1 percentage point as compared to Clinton.Biden’s share of votes by Latinos decreased by 8 percentage points compared to Hillary Clinton’s, and his share of votes by Black people decreased by 3 percentage points.Some of their general findings about what changed since 2016: The Catalist authors put all this together to estimate how different demographics voted. But this information can be supplemented with precinct-level vote results, census information, and survey findings. That information has its limits - it’s a secret ballot, so we don’t know who specific people voted for. The report is superior to the exit polls because it’s based in their research for what’s known as a “voter file.” Basically, they’ve put together a large database of turnout information about actual voters, assembled from state or local records about who actually showed up. Now, Catalist, a Democratic data firm, has put out a report on “ What Happened in 2020,” authored by Yair Ghitza and Jonathan Robinson, which makes a serious attempt to answer that question. ![]() ![]() ![]() More rigorous analysis simply takes longer. In the days and weeks after presidential election results come in, commentators attempting to figure out what happened with voter demographics are often in a fog - forced to rely on unreliable exit polls. ![]()
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